Quarter-finals
Spotlight:
48 teams. Three hosts. 39 days.
The 2026 World Cup is the biggest ever played — 12 groups across the USA, Mexico and Canada, June 11 to July 19. Every dot below is a team. Scroll, and follow them from the group stage to the Round of 16.
Seven sets of brothers are at this tournament — only three pairs share a flag.
Having the ball ≠ using it
The higher a dot sits above the line, the more it scores beyond what its possession predicts. Spain hoarded 62% of the ball and still drew 0–0 with Cabo Verde. Croatia passed beautifully and scored almost nothing.
Cabo Verde (pop. ~525,000) held Spain — winners of Euro 2024 — to a 0–0 draw in their first ever World Cup match.
Finishing is the great separator
Shots on target predict goals better than anything else here (r = 0.97). England and Norway score more than any model says they should — Croatia, again, less.
Norway have never lost a match in which Haaland scores: 16 wins from 16.
Cards are noise
Fouling earns yellow cards, sure. But cards have essentially zero relationship with goals (r = −0.09). The aggressive pressing teams collect both cards and wins.
Belgium committed the most fouls of any team — and got zero red cards.
Goals, unevenly divided
The dots stack into a histogram of goals scored per team in the group stage. Germany, Argentina and Norway pile up at the high end; the debutants cluster near zero.
Türkiye took 62 shots without scoring — the most since 1966 — and went home.
Then the table did its work
The 32 who advanced rise. The other 16 fall out of the tournament — including two-time champions Uruguay, and Türkiye despite all those shots. Sixteen teams, three weeks, gone.
Uruguay — winners in 1930 and 1950 — went out in the group stage without ever leading a knockout push.
And now, the last 8
The knockouts have been brutal: all three hosts — USA, Mexico and Canada — are out, and Norway stunned Brazil. France and Spain are already into the semis (they meet in Dallas). Pick a flag in the Spotlight bar above to follow your team through every chart on every tab.
Cabo Verde pushed Argentina to extra time before losing 3–2 — the fairy tale ended a round later than anyone expected.
Explore the data yourself · drag any chart left/right to scrub all 48 teams · pick a flag above to spotlight
Where Teams Beat the Model
Sort
Columns
290
Total Goals
Through July 10
2.96
Goals/Match
98 matches played
7
Messi Goals
Golden Boot leader
3
Hosts Eliminated
USA, Mexico, Canada — all out in R16
6
Teams Left
France & Spain into the semis
18
Messi WC Total
All-time record
When Goals Are Scored
📈
Late Goals Surge
A massive 28 goals landed in the 76–90' window — 2.3× more than any other 15-minute slot. Teams push harder, gaps open, and fitness drops late.
🔁
Second Half Rules
Of the first 100 goals, 54 came in the second half vs 46 in the first — a 17% swing. Substitutes and fatigue shift the balance after 45 minutes.
⏱️
Slowest Quarter
The 46–60' window is the quietest — just 13 goals. Teams feel each other out again after half-time before the late push begins.
Goal Breakdown
Set Piece Goals (First 100)
🚩
Corner Kings
10 of 19 set-piece goals came from corner kicks — more than all other dead-ball situations combined. Aerial threats and zonal marking errors at corners are decisive.
🎯
Penalty Perfect Start
Penalties started 6-for-6 (100%) before Messi's miss against Austria broke the streak. Final rate: 85.7% (6/7). Still historically high.
🤷
Direct Free Kicks Rare
Only 1 direct free kick goal in the first 100 — wall-beating precision remains one of the hardest skills in football even at this level.
Own Goals — Tournament Leading "Scorer"
#Scorer (Team)MatchMinuteHow it happened
1🇮🇶 Aymen Hussein (Iraq)Iraq vs Norway34'Mistimed aerial clearance from inswinging corner, deflected backward
2🇶🇦 Mohammed Manai (Qatar)Qatar vs Canada58'Low cross forced back-to-goal stance, awkward deflection past keeper
3🇦🇺 Cameron Burgess (Australia)Australia vs USA67'Deflected off the defender from USA's wide threat
OGs #4–7 details being verified · Updated daily as confirmed data arrives
😬
Own Goals "Lead" the Golden Boot
With 7 own goals across the group stage — scored by 7 different players on 7 different teams — they collectively outscore any individual player (Messi, David: 3 each). It is a collective stat misread as a single scorer. On pace to match the all-time record of 12 set in Russia 2018.
📐
Corners & Wide Play Drive OGs
All three confirmed own goals came from wide deliveries or set pieces — inswinging corners, low crosses. The expanded 48-team field means more mismatches in aerial duels.
Disallowed Goals & VAR Interventions
~18
Goals disallowed
~14
By offside
~3
By foul in build-up
~4
Overturned → goal given
~6.8%
Goals disallowed / total attempts
Player (Team)MatchMinReasonVAR OutcomeDetails
🇦🇷 Lionel MessiArgentina vs Algeria4' Offside ✗ Confirmed disallowed Marginal offside call. Messi went on to score a hat-trick anyway
🇮🇷 Mehdi TaremiIran vs Belgium11' Offside ✗ Confirmed disallowed Backside marginally over the line on free-kick routine. Took several minutes to confirm
🇨🇴 Daniel MunozColombia vs DR Congo~28' Offside ✗ Confirmed disallowed Header in the box, confirmed offside by VAR
🇨🇴 Luis Díaz (×2)Colombia vs DR Congo~55', ~58' Offside ✗ Both confirmed Two disallowed goals in quick succession — both ruled offside despite clean finishes
🇸🇪 Mattias SvanbergNetherlands vs Sweden84' Offside (on-field) ✓ Overturned — GOAL Initially ruled offside. VAR used Connected Ball Technology to detect Isak's touch, resetting offside line. Goal stood — fastest-ever WC substitute goal (12 sec after coming on)
🇺🇸 Alex FreemanUSA vs Australia43' Offside (flag) ✓ Overturned — GOAL Flag raised immediately. Semi-automated offside confirmed Freeman onside. Goal given
VariousMultiple matches Offside ✗ Confirmed disallowed ~8–10 additional offside disallowances across group stage matches
📐
Tighter Offside Tech = More Disallowed Goals
The 2026 SAOT system flags players down to ~10 cm offside (vs 50 cm in Qatar 2022), catching marginal calls the old system missed. Taremi's disallowed goal was his backside — the very definition of a centimetre call.
🔄
Connected Ball Tech Saves Goals Too
Svanberg's goal (Sweden vs Netherlands) was only given because the Adidas ball's sensor detected Isak's touch. Without that data, the fastest-ever WC substitute goal would have been disallowed.
😤
~6.8% of Goals Don't Count
Roughly 1 in 15 goals scored is ruled out — overwhelmingly for offside (~78% of disallowances). Fouls in the build-up and handballs account for the rest. VAR overturns favour the attacking team about 20% of the time.
Penalty Kicks
TakerTeamMatchMinResult
Kai Havertz🇩🇪 Germanyvs Curaçao45+2'✓ Scored
Marko Arnautović🇦🇹 Austriavs Jordan90+4'✓ Scored
Granit Xhaka🇨🇭 Switzerlandvs Bosnia90+2'✓ Scored
Harry Kane🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Englandvs Croatia62'✓ Scored (retake)
Cristiano Ronaldo🇵🇹 Portugalvs Uzbekistan54'✓ Scored
Christian Pulisic🇺🇸 United Statesvs Paraguay38'✓ Scored
Lionel Messi🇦🇷 Argentinavs Austria71'✗ Missed — broke 100% streak
🟢
6-for-6 Start, Then Messi
The tournament opened with a perfect penalty record across 6 kicks before Messi's miss against Austria ended the streak. His 57% WC penalty rate is his worst in any competition.
📉
Lower Frequency Than Expected
At 0.15 penalties per game, the group stage is tracking well below the ~0.31 historical average in VAR-era tournaments — suggesting more conservative refereeing or fewer box fouls.
Golden Boot Race
Through the Round of 32 · July 4, 2026
RankPlayerTeamGoalsNotes
🥇 1stMessi🇦🇷 Argentina7Retook the outright lead with his extra-time goal vs Cabo Verde. All-time WC record 18 goals.
🥈 2ndMbappé🇫🇷 France6Scored in the QF vs Morocco (his 20th career WC goal). France all-time WC scorer.
🥈 2ndKane🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England5Two past DR Congo in the R32. England all-time leading WC scorer.
🥈 2ndHaaland🇳🇴 Norway5Scored again vs Ivory Coast. Faces Brazil next.
5thVinícius Jr🇧🇷 Brazil4Carrying Brazil’s attack into the last 16.
5thOyarzabal🇪🇸 Spain4On the scoresheet again in Spain’s 3-0 R32 win over Austria.
4thDembélé🇫🇷 France5Scored again in the QF vs Morocco — level with Kane and Haaland.
The race: Messi leads on 7, with Mbappé, Kane and Haaland one behind on 5 — three of the four still alive in the Round of 16 (Kane’s England face Mexico; Haaland’s Norway face Brazil; Mbappé’s France face Paraguay). Golden Boot ties are broken first by assists, then by fewest minutes played.
Final Group Standings
Group stage complete · June 27, 2026 · ✅ Advanced to Round of 32   ❌ Eliminated
Fixtures & Results
Newest round first · tap a round to expand · tap a match for the story behind it
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Statistical Predictions & Insights
What the data says about who will go deep — and who won't
Poss%
Goals
Shots
SoT
xG